Future of Fly Tying

[Hatchet Jack 0]

As far as greed goes, I once heard a wag remark that the way to make $100,000

when running a fly tying/fly shop business is to start out with $200,000.

 

When I look at my flies that actually catch fish, they're typically something that emulates your basic jig

and this style of fly is not expensive to tie. Road kill, dead birds, dog & cat fur, trimmings swiped

from my dear's sewing basket, etc., etc. Eagle Claw makes inexpensive hooks that are just fine.

 

Christ on a bike, between my health care costs & my shitty stagnant wages, it's a wonder

I'm not living in a rubbish tip, eating leftover take-aways. Expensive fly tying materials are symptomatic

of a larger problem in this country (my 2¢ worth opinion).

[SilverCreek 0]

 

I hardly think higher prices are due to "GREED". I take it you have never owned a business. Every businesses involved in getting those materials to you has to deal with increasing expenses in things like the following: minimum wage (and its ramifications), matching social security tax, excise tax, inflation, utility bills, freight and mail charges, OSA and EPA regulation compliance, insurance, advertising, website costs, etc.

 

All businesses must pass these increased costs along to their customer or go out of business. Eventually they all get passes to the final consumer.

 

Exactly!

The consumer is the ultimate arbiter. If a business cannot make a profit, they disappear. If you cannot find a way to tie flies affordably, you will stop. They are two sided of the same coin. The things that fly tiers complain about as expensive, are tit for tat on the business side.

Consider hackle, for example. Every heard of bird flu (H5N1)? It has killed millions of birds and virulent forms of the virus kill 60% of the humans who catch it. According to Wikipedia, ”The reported mortality rate of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in a human is high; WHO data indicate 60% of cases classified as H5N1 resulted in death. However, there is some evidence the actual mortality rate of avian flu could be much lower, as there may be many people with milder symptoms who do not seek treatment and are not counted) According to a report by the World Health Organization, H5N1 may be spread indirectly. The report stated the virus may sometimes stick to surfaces or get kicked up in fertilizer dust to infect people.”

Since the the reservoir of H1N1 is in foreign domestic chickens, the result is that there are no foreign supply of foreign hackle as there used to be. So the hackle supply is limited to domestic supply and the domestic supply is ALL genetic. In 2015 a related bird flu - H5N2 - devastated the US poultry adn egg industry resulting a the destruction of 48 million chickens and over $1 billion in loss.

http://fortune.com/2015/06/25/bird-flu-outbreak-farms/

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5/

And what do genetic hackle suppliers have to do? they have to reverse isolate their flock so everyone and everything that comes into contact with their flock including machinery, materials, food and employees have to be decontaminated. H5N2 is in the USA and every hackle raiser is at risk. This raises cost tremendously.

See the article by Dr. Tom Whiting on p2 of the Whiting Farms Newsletter below:

http://www.whitingfarms.com/newsletters/JULY2015NEWSLETTERwebversion.pdf

”The agricultural nightmare that occurred in the upper Midwest in the first half of 2015 was a monumental tragedy for the farmers, companies and communities it affected, not to mention the chickens and turkeys who were infected by the virus and had to be destroyed. The numbers are staggering. I believe something around 48 MILLION have died or been destroyed so far! Fortunately the disease has abated for the time being, as is usual with influenzas in all animals (including humans) because the warmer weather sup- presses the virus and thus the disease has waned. The big fear now is what will happen this fall when all the migratory water- fowl, who can be asymptomatic carriers of this highly pathogenic virus, migrate south from their Canadian nesting grounds? The epidemic of the early part of 2015, it is feared, might be disseminated to ALL the migratory flyways, not isolated to the Mississippi flyway, causing a renewed and more widespread pandemic that will be even worse than what has already been suffered. The USDA and the poultry industry has had the roughest of wake up calls in 2015, and the readiness and biosecurity efforts will doubtlessly be very much better in the future. But this last go around defied even some of the proven biosecurity techniques. So no one can say at this point what the future holds.

To my knowledge none of the fly tying feathers producers have been directly affected by this dis- ease. Some countries have banned the importation of any poultry products from the USA because of what happened, which has blocked some feather exports to maybe a dozen foreign countries. But the supply of feathers is pretty much the same. I believe everyone in the poultry industry is stepping up their biosecurity efforts, which include prohibition of all nonessential visitors, keeping wild birds out of the chicken sheds, washing vehicles and equipment regularly, and in some cases “showering in and showering out” all personnel that work with the birds. There is talk of a vaccine being developed for this particularly pathogenic strain of Avian Influenza. But like the vaccines for human influenza, each year a new cocktail of viral strains are slammed together, mostly from the currently circulating strains in the southern hemisphere, in hopes that what afflicts the northern hemisphere population will be protected, at least partially, by one or more of the incorporated vaccine strains. No “universal” vaccine has ever been successfully made for human influenza, unlike many other diseases. The same is true with Avian Influenza, because the ability of the virus to evolve, mutate and recombine precludes creating a vaccine that protects against an ever evolving enemy.

We at Whiting Farms are concerned and will take the necessary precautions to prevent introduction of Avian Influenza into our operations. As a side note, I personally have seen the disease, as in 1983 I was briefly on the federal government’s Avian Influenza Task Force when the first significant break of this disease hit the USA in Lancaster County Pennsylvania. I had just finished my Master’s degree at the University of Georgia and joined the Task Force working on the wildlife aspect of the outbreak. It was both sobering and fascinating, as it was run like a military operation with maps on a big wall dotted with colored pins, and early morning “situation briefings”. I even have a slide show which I have given a few times to county health departments. The scale of the recent A. I. outbreak though is unprecedented. But hopefully the predictions for the future will be not be as bad as they could be.

Sincerely, Tom Whiting”

So if anyone thinks that raising and selling or retailing fly tying materials is highly profitable, they should start a business.

Nature abhors a vacuum. Commerce does also. The fly tying material business is full of competitors. If there is a vacuum there, I fail to see it.

For Hooks try Fly Shack Saber and Allen branded hooks. $6.99/100 hooks

https://www.flyshack.com/DisplayCategory.aspx?CatID=660

http://www.allenflyfishing.com/fly-hooks/

[FlaFly 0]

My original reply, and that of many others, was about tying as a hobby or tying flies to use myself. I do see the possibility that it might affect commercial tyers. I don't do that, but I suspect those that tie commercially, well-known and highly desired patterns, feel obligated to keep using the "accepted" materials... not substitutes. As the price of those materials increases, so will their asking price for their flies be forced upward, and consequently the number of buyers will get smaller.

[Senecalaker 0]

Higher prices are not from greed. The higher prices are because someone will pay what they ask. So, therefore the price wasn't too high. The price is too high when people refuse to pay what is being asked. The market will check itself. Similar to fast food workers wanting $15/ hr for their wages. If they can get it, awesome. You won't find me eating there.

[Piker20 0]

Totally off post but the global push for this ideological living wage is a pie in the sky idea. Jobs that have always been seen as less desirable and carry a higher wage to encourage applications wont be able to increase those wages as most will be public sector non profit making anyway. Then the local shop starts paying the same or close to the same and who in their right mind will take the dangerous/abusive/dirty job for the same money.

 

Not sure how they did it but communism has won and it doesn't matter how many politicians wear a conservative/capitalist hat. They are all socialist now and show me a country in the last 200yrs that's had success with that model.

[Crackaig 0]

I wonder about this. Some years ago the chairman of a fishing club I was a member off criticised me for buying a DynaKing Barracuda at over £300. He said that an expensive vice wasn't needed to tie good flies, and that his vice had cost him £2,2'.00 (Two pounds two shillings). I asked him what he was earning in 1952 when he bought it? He was on an above average wage then but had spent a full weeks wage on his vice. What are you earning now? Was my next question. In real terms the Barracuda was cheaper. Considering his vice was a simple vice like a Thompson the Barracuda was a lot more vice for the money.

 

The same goes for hackle. When I started tying an Indian cock cape was about £6 - £7. If I got a good one I might get 30 to 50 size 12, 14 and 16 dry flies out of it. That was at best £0.12 per fly for hackle. Now I will use something like Metz saddles at £32:50 Out of which I can get in excess of 2000 dry flies. That is £0,016 of hackle per fly. That is a lot less per fly.

 

These days flies are used for a lot more species now than ever before, the market has grown to reflect this. Yes some materials are expensive, others are cheap, there are often alternatives. Even with the cost of some of the materials now there is a lack of people getting seriously rich off them.

 

What does worry me is the tendency to use pre formed "plastic" parts in flies. These, by their nature, cost a lot, and are changing fly tying to building model kits.

 

Not sure how they did it but communism has won and it doesn't matter how many politicians wear a conservative/capitalist hat. They are all socialist now and show me a country in the last 200yrs that's had success with that model.

 

In a keynote speech last week Yanis Varoufakis summed up the current situation as a "Bankruptocracy". Where we are controlled by the largest most bankrupt financial institutions. https://youtu.be/B1eOVU61mZE (You'll also find an answer to the problem you are describing there. You might not like it but the answer is there.)

 

Cheers,

C.

[flytyerinpa 0]

The reason I figure its greed is the fact that there was a local fly shop I use to by everything at Daiichi hooks were $9.00 a 100 Mustad hooks were $6.35 a hundred Indian necks were $2.00 100 yrs of 6-0 or 8-0 thread was $1.00 wool, spun fir, chenille was $1.25 a card about 5 yds. to make a long story short after 35 yrs. in business he said I'm 72 and missed a lot of fishing I'm shutting it down. With no other fly tying shop with in 50 miles I started to look on the internet that's when I saw Daiichi hooks for $17.95 and up in fact everything I looked up was like 50% or more higher. This was over the course of a few months not years .

[heavynets 0]

Yannis Varoufakis is a marxist economist that was the 2015 minister of finance in Greece. And you think he has the answers. The sad thing is that his speech was reminiscent of Obama's "you didn't built that" speech. Lord help up.

[SilverCreek 0]

 

Now that we have gone off topic to economics, I will add my predictions.

I don't know what the future holds precisely but I do know that in economics, labor is a commodity just like oil and steel are commodities. The cost and supply of labor follows the supple demand curve just like any other commodity.

When purchasing commodities, the purchaser of labor will seek the lowest cost. So unskilled or even semi-skilled labor manufacturing labor is disappearing in the USA. More than that, there are states, for example, California that are raising the minimum wage to $15.00 thinking that this will increase the living standard of the minimum wage employee.

I am predicting that instead, those places with high minimum wages will become the testing ground for the new economics of labor. In California, I predict that places such as fast food outlets that hire minimum wage employees will begin to turn to automation and robotics to do the jobs that minimum wage employees were doing. Food prep and even order taking will be speech recognition or by smart phone app. As the cost of labor is mandated at a higher rate; robotic machines that need no day off, that need no mandated health insurance, no mandated vacation days or coffee breaks, or sick days, or matching FICA payments, or raises, or rest, or labor unions or labor disputes or labor negotiations. This will become not only become economically feasible; but required for the businesses to survive. Initially these robots will be used behind the scenes, but we will soon be used to them; and that is when the explosion of robot labor will occur.

Government does a poor job of trying to bend the economy and companies to their will. Government will find that raising the living standard by raising the minimum wage will accelerate the decline of the working class. They are doing it to pander to the working class, and it is a huge mistake because they have accelerated the economic incentive to automate labor.

The same thing will happen to the 3,000,000 people who now earn their living by driving trucks. Automation with self driving trucks and cars in 20 years will make those jobs obsolete. Needing no mandated rest periods, these vehicles will be safer and more reliable than human drivers because every vehicle on the road will be interconnected and know the most time and cost effective route to take.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/17/technology/want-to-buy-a-self-driving-car-trucks-may-come-first.html?

“It will take a very long time to transition three million people,” Mr. Levandowski said, referring to the number of truck drivers in the United States. “However, it’s also the nature of progress. There used to be elevator operators in New York City and there are not anymore.”

One of my friends has a son (Peter Wurman) who was a whiz kid and wrote a computer program when he was in elementary school to help with some of the functions at his elementary school. He went to MIT, then U of Michigan, and co-founded Kiva Systems which was purchased by Amazon. Kiva designs the software and manufacturers the robots that do the heavy manual labor in the Amazon Warehouses. Peter is the genius that designs the computer code that allow these robots to talk to each other, avoid each other, figure out the fastest route to pick up-deliver- then return the rack.

Imagine what is happening on the floor of this Amazon Warehouse as happening on the roads with trucks to deliver thier load or any job that requires moving and delivering items from one place ot another.

If you are a waiter, a grocery shelf stocker, a warehouseman, a barista, a waiter, etc, etc. I recommend you go to school and get into a field that is not easily replaced.

See if I am not right in 20 years.

So some futurists are now predicting that there will be so few lower level entry jobs left that the government will be forced to pay people a living wage because there simply will not be enough jobs for the working population.

How's that for a prediction.

 

 

http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/03/10/public-predictions-for-the-future-of-workforce-automation/

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/the-end-of-labor-how-to-protect-workers-from-the-rise-of-robots/267135/

 

http://www.zdnet.com/article/the-future-of-manual-labor-no-people-just-robots/

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/24/google-robot-is-the-end-of-manual-labor-vc.html

 

http://mashable.com/2016/04/09/google-bipedal-robot/#eEFsVYmi5qq3

[Piker20 0]

Switzerland recently proposed to pay everyone, working or not £1700 a month. That's $2441

It didn't gather support and went no further but the government proposed that people would still want to work even if they would receive the same money not bothering.

So your predictions are not all that futuristic. It'll just be a case of how long it takes to arrive.

 

Any jobs going in robotic chicken fry machine making?

[Poopdeck 0]

Poopdeck, you quoted my post as if you are in disagreement. Read my post again. I totally agree with you.

Of course we agree. Except it is about greed.

[Guest]

Materials today are expensive!! Natural hairs Black bear hair - lots of the catalouges don't say what the size of it is, 98% of them are only a 2x2 piece for $3.95 or higher. Well my local shop here's what I got for $3.

 

A few ebay stores I go through on a regular basis have fur hide pakages of 7-8 different kinds.

 

The hackle craze!!! we all went through it and I didn't buy any during it, I had enough and the colors I used to tie flies that work in my area. Recently I waited for my wife to get her hair cut as we were going out to dinner after. The salon owner complained about all the feathers she had as no one was getting them anymore. I asked her how much do you have left - she showed me and it was probably close to 10 full saddles. I'll give you a $100 for 1/2 of it. The woman looked at me like I was nuts!!! $500 wouldn't buy a 1/3 of it. I told her the fad was over and she was gonna have a lot of feathers left. For what she was charging during the fad $35-40 bucks a feather put in, the hackle she had left was paid for long ago. Told her, change your mind call me!

 

Hooks - Always used Mustad, when they changed them I bought a couple 1000 through Togens and a bunch I wanted from auctions on ebay. You want to use high end hooks more power to you. I got some other brands through trades. .

 

Went through some med problems a few years ago and couldn't hunt - sent a few emails to folks about duck flank feathers. Most of these folks were throwing the feathers away!!! This was through jig tying boards - They sent them to me and asked for a dozen tied jigs. Try buying all these in a store!

 

The lemon barred feathers gave me a hugh stock for tying Catskill style flies and the Barred ones I don't tie salmon flies and did a bunch of trades. Also, because I had so many I taught myself to dye and have dyed a bunch of them, and pieces of fur. I have info from a guy who does a bunch of dyeing and he's told me how to keep the dyed skins soft even after dyeing them - hopefully I don't mess up and they stay soft and I'll cut a bunch of zonker strips.

 

Several other fly tying boards and some of my jig boards used to do material Swap Box's and got a lot of stuff through those.

 

Got to know Denny Conrad over on the Fly Anglers On Line board several years ago and he was looking for a certain color of elk hair and I had a big chunk of it and told him I'd send it to him. He'd always send extra's when I bought stuff and I was glad to do it. He answered back what can I trade you for it - and I told him nothing, Denny said gotta send you something so being the smart a$$ that I am I told him surprise me. Well!!! he surprised me alright.

 

I've got a lot of folks I call friends whom I've never met!! tying doesn't need to be expensive and I know I'll never tie presentation flies. I started tying flies on a Herters #9 (thompson copy), then my daughter got me a Thompson at a pawn shop, and I bought myself when another of my local shops was having a hugh sale a DynaKing King Fisher. .

 

Enjoy you're tying!!!!!!!!

[Crackaig 0]

Switzerland recently proposed to pay everyone, working or not £1700 a month. That's $2441

It didn't gather support and went no further but the government proposed that people would still want to work even if they would receive the same money not bothering.

So your predictions are not all that futuristic. It'll just be a case of how long it takes to arrive.

 

Any jobs going in robotic chicken fry machine making?

 

To say 130 000 signatures on the petition in Switzerland is not gaining support is ridiculous. The referendum on this takes place on June 5th, in other words it is going further. Also the level of payment has not yet been set.

 

Yes this is the future, as automation takes over there will be less and less work available for people. It has been said that eventually the stock exchanges will be reduced to a bank of computers a dog and a man. The computers will do all the trading, the dog is there to see no one touches the computers, and the man, he is there to feed the dog.

 

Cheers,

C.

[Adam Saarinen 0]

Happy to be in my 40's & have no kids!

[cheech 0]

Time for the village idiot (me) to chime in. It's not going anywhere for me and I'm a far cry from rich. Like Mike said above, I tie flies for one reason and one reason only...to catch fish. They just end up pretty sometimes. I'm not going to stop trying to catch fish, so I'm not going to stop tying. When someone asks me details on what I have tied, I tell them. People ask for specifics and I provide them. I'm not sponsored by anyone (nor do I ever hope to be) and I'm not in the business of keeping secrets. Some things are more expensive and not worth the money, to me, some things are. It's all about perspective. What's worth the price for you? Get creative and you can find ways to stock up on good material for minimal investment. Craft stores, Amazon, eBay, I use them all. If I stumble on something good for cheap that I can use I don't care where it comes from. I'm also lucky I guess that I hunt a lot. I save what I can from animals I kill and animals buddies kill. I haven't bought a white buck tail in years. I have a (for me) lifetime supply of pheasant tail. I have woodchuck hair from a whistle pig I sniped in the back yard. Squirrel tails in the freezer (don't tell my wife). Buy a $1 pack of powdered dye at Walmart and dye your own materials. Recycle hooks from flies that got damaged or experiments gone wrong.

 

There are ways to cut cost if that is hurting you. And tying is going nowhere if it means to you what it means to me.

Yep... Agreed.

 

Another thing... Inflation.